Rupee jumps on RBI squeeze
India’s rupee surged on Monday after the Reserve Bank of India tightened banks’ foreign-exchange position limits, forcing lenders to cut dollar holdings and unwind arbitrage trades that had built up as the currency slid to a record low at the end of last week. The rupee rose as much as 1.4% in early trade and was quoted around 93.48 to 93.85 per US dollar, marking its sharpest one-day gain since February.The immediate trigger was the RBI’s March 27 directive capping banks’ net open rupee positions in the onshore deliverable market at $100 million by the close of each business day from April 10. That replaced a looser framework under which banks’ boards could set limits up to 25% of total capital. Traders said the order prompted a burst of dollar selling as banks moved to reduce exposures that had become profitable while the rupee was weakening.The rebound followed a bruising stretch for the currency. On Friday, the rupee hit a record low of about 94.84 to the dollar after heavy pressure from higher crude prices, risk aversion and foreign outflows. Reuters reported the rupee had fallen more than 4% in March, putting it on course for its worst monthly performance in more than seven years, while broader anxiety over the Middle East conflict and its implications for energy markets deepened concern over India’s import bill and external balance.At the centre of the RBI’s move is the gap between the domestic market and the offshore non-deliverable forward, or NDF, market. Banks had been exploiting pricing differences between the two venues, building large arbitrage books that were profitable during the rupee’s slide. Estimates for those positions vary, but Reuters and other market reports put them broadly in the $25 billion to $50 billion range. By suddenly tightening the rules, the central bank appears to have targeted not only volatility in the spot market but also the speculative mechanics that were amplifying pressure on the currency.That has given the rupee breathing room, but it has also shifted the strain onto banks. Lenders have warned that rapid compliance could force a disorderly unwinding of positions and crystallise losses in treasury books. Several banks have asked the RBI for three months to comply, arguing that a phased adjustment or permission to hold existing trades to maturity would reduce the risk of market disruption. Equity investors appeared to register that concern, with banking shares falling amid estimates that mark-to-market losses could run into thousands of crores if the unwind is abrupt.The central bank’s intervention is being read in dealing rooms as one of its strongest attempts in years to reassert control over rupee pricing. Market participants said the RBI has already been active in local and offshore markets, using reserves and liquidity tools to keep the currency from sliding too quickly. The new cap adds a regulatory weapon to that defence. It also sends a signal that the central bank is prepared to curb trading strategies it sees as destabilising, even at the cost of squeezing bank profitability in the short term.Whether the rupee can hold on to these gains will depend less on technical unwinding and more on the backdrop that pushed it down in the first place. Brent crude has climbed sharply, with Reuters reporting a move above $115 a barrel on Monday and a monthly gain of nearly 60%. For an economy that imports the bulk of its oil, that raises the risk of a wider current account deficit, imported inflation and renewed pressure on the currency. Bond yields also edged higher, indicating that traders remain alert to the wider macroeconomic fallout even as the rupee recovers ground.The article Rupee jumps on RBI squeeze appeared first on Arabian Post.
India’s rupee surged on Monday after the Reserve Bank of India tightened banks’ foreign-exchange position limits, forcing lenders to cut dollar holdings and unwind arbitrage trades that had built up as the currency slid to a record low at the end of last week. The rupee rose as much as 1.4% in early trade and was quoted around 93.48 to 93.85 per US dollar, marking its sharpest one-day gain since February.
The immediate trigger was the RBI’s March 27 directive capping banks’ net open rupee positions in the onshore deliverable market at $100 million by the close of each business day from April 10. That replaced a looser framework under which banks’ boards could set limits up to 25% of total capital. Traders said the order prompted a burst of dollar selling as banks moved to reduce exposures that had become profitable while the rupee was weakening.
The rebound followed a bruising stretch for the currency. On Friday, the rupee hit a record low of about 94.84 to the dollar after heavy pressure from higher crude prices, risk aversion and foreign outflows. Reuters reported the rupee had fallen more than 4% in March, putting it on course for its worst monthly performance in more than seven years, while broader anxiety over the Middle East conflict and its implications for energy markets deepened concern over India’s import bill and external balance.
At the centre of the RBI’s move is the gap between the domestic market and the offshore non-deliverable forward, or NDF, market. Banks had been exploiting pricing differences between the two venues, building large arbitrage books that were profitable during the rupee’s slide. Estimates for those positions vary, but Reuters and other market reports put them broadly in the $25 billion to $50 billion range. By suddenly tightening the rules, the central bank appears to have targeted not only volatility in the spot market but also the speculative mechanics that were amplifying pressure on the currency.
That has given the rupee breathing room, but it has also shifted the strain onto banks. Lenders have warned that rapid compliance could force a disorderly unwinding of positions and crystallise losses in treasury books. Several banks have asked the RBI for three months to comply, arguing that a phased adjustment or permission to hold existing trades to maturity would reduce the risk of market disruption. Equity investors appeared to register that concern, with banking shares falling amid estimates that mark-to-market losses could run into thousands of crores if the unwind is abrupt.
The central bank’s intervention is being read in dealing rooms as one of its strongest attempts in years to reassert control over rupee pricing. Market participants said the RBI has already been active in local and offshore markets, using reserves and liquidity tools to keep the currency from sliding too quickly. The new cap adds a regulatory weapon to that defence. It also sends a signal that the central bank is prepared to curb trading strategies it sees as destabilising, even at the cost of squeezing bank profitability in the short term.
Whether the rupee can hold on to these gains will depend less on technical unwinding and more on the backdrop that pushed it down in the first place. Brent crude has climbed sharply, with Reuters reporting a move above $115 a barrel on Monday and a monthly gain of nearly 60%. For an economy that imports the bulk of its oil, that raises the risk of a wider current account deficit, imported inflation and renewed pressure on the currency. Bond yields also edged higher, indicating that traders remain alert to the wider macroeconomic fallout even as the rupee recovers ground.
The article Rupee jumps on RBI squeeze appeared first on Arabian Post.
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