Redrawing Political Map Of India On Census 2011 Will Be A Grave Mistake

By Dr. Gyan Pathak

Union Government of India under PM Narendra Modi has given enough hints by proposing to bring an amendment Bill purportedly to fast-track women’s quota rollout that it is seriously working on its earlier plan to complete the delimitation process by 2028. However, the most surprising element that has emerged is that the process is to be completed on the basis of the Census 2011, while it was to be done on the basis of the first Census after 2026 as it was legally mandated.

Though there is no written communication circulated about the details of the current proposal, it has been reported that under the proposed amendments, the number of Lok Sabha seats will increase from current 543 to 816, with 273 seats reserved for women. Since four states and one UT are going to polls in April and Model Code of Conduct is in operation, the government plans to bring the legislation after the election is over. Government will either extend ongoing budget session for this or a separate Special Session will be called for this purpose.

Some of the key proposals as communicated verbally by not less than the Union Home Minister Amit Shah are: the proposed delimitation will be based on 2011 census; Population will not be the determinant in deciding strength of a state’s representation in Lok Sabha; The seats in the Lok Sabah and the Legislative Assemblies of the states will be increased by 50 per cent across the board; Number of current Lok Sabah Seats of States will not be reduced but maintained proportionately; and Women’s quota will be rolled out and will also be applied to SC and ST categories.

According to sources, the Centre is planning to constitute the Delimitation Commission by June 2026. Nevertheless, many things are to be clarified by the government – for example the rationale of increasing the Lok Sabha seats from 543 to 816, or on what basis the seats in the Lok Sabha and in the State Legislative Assemblies will be increased by 50 per cent.

It should be noted that the new parliament building has 888 seats. Currently, we have altogether 543 MPs, which works out to be one MP representing about 10 lakh people. The delimitation was based on the 1971 population.

The projected population as of March 2026 is somewhere between 1.47 and 1.48 billion. If we decide one MP for 20 lakh population there would be 707 seats. If we decide for one MP in 15 lakh population, total seats would be 942. As per the 2024 Lok Sabha election figures, each Lok Sabha Constituency had 17.84 lakh voters on projected population of 25.8 lakh. Therefore, the rationale of increasing seats to 816 needs to be explained.

During a parliamentary debate in September 2023, on Women’s Reservation Bill, the implementation of which was also linked to delimitation on the first Census after 2026, the issues of parliamentary seats was discussed, in which MPs for Southern states have raised the issue and expressed their concern of losing their representation in the parliament of India. At that time on projected population of 142 crore, Lok Sabha Constituencies were estimated to rise to 848. In that case the number of seats in Uttar Pradesh would increase from 80 to 143, Bihar from 40 to 79, Rajasthan from 25 to 50 and Madhya Pradesh from 29 to 52.On the other hand, in the southern states – in Tamil Nadu it would increase from 39 to 49, Andhra and Telangana from 42 to 45, Karnataka from 28 to 41. As for Kerala is concerned its seat will remain at 20. Southern states have raised serious concern.

In March 2025, Tamil Nadu CM M K Stalin has convened an all party meeting, in which a resolution was passed demanding that the freeze on the number of seats in Lok Sabha based on the 1971 Census should be extended for another 30 years. CM Stalin has said, “Delimitation exercise solely based on population figures will be a gross injustice to Tamil Nadu and other Southern States. We are not against Delimitation exercise, but we want justice to be rendered to us.”

However, when the current proposal of amending the legislation to roll out women’s quota was communicated, MK Stalin supported that but reiterated the demand of suspending the delimitation process for 30 years.

Union Government is now in talks with opposition on the issue. Union Minister of Home Amit Shah and other leaders from the government have met several leaders this week which included the Nationalist Congress Party (SP)’s Supriya Sule, YSR Congress Party’s P.V. Midhun Reddy, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen’s Asaduddin Owaisi and the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s Arvind Sawant, among others. Government has already consulted Congress and SP separately. TMC and Left have skipped meetings.

While Trinamool Rajya Sabha leader O’ Brien called it an “election stunt”, Congress general secretary Jairam Ramesh has criticized PM Narendra Modi, and said that he wants to implement the women’s reservation law without completing the delimitation and census operation. He alleged that this was a “weapon of mass diversion” to change the narrative from “foreign policy failures and setbacks and from the LPG and energy crisis facing the country”.

Nevertheless, the issue of delimitation on the basis of 2011 Census is labelled by experts as a bad idea, on several grounds, and called it highly problematic. Population as that time was 1.21 billion but now it is 1.48 billion. It may distort the political map which will not reflect the reality of the country. Since 2011 data is outdated, it will make fairness questionable. (IPA Service)

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