2025 was my year to buy gold and 2026 is my year to buy black gold!

Matein Khalid

The tragic images of the bloodbath in Iran, caused by the regime’s crackdown on protests have horrified the world and amplified the price surge in both oil and precious metal markets, with silver at $95 an ounce and tin up almost 30% in the first two weeks of 2026.

Emerging markets will unquestionably be the dominant theme of 2026 now that the macro data suggests that the US economy is in goldilocks mode, not too hot on inflation as the latest CPI was well below 3% at 2.7% and not too cold on growth, which remains well above 2.5% GDP trend growth.

It is not a coincidence that the South Korean country ETF EWW, was up 90% last year and is up 10% in 2026, making money in nine consecutive trading sessions. Why is Seoul so hot as an investment destination even for a guy like me who cannot take endless inputs of kimchi and soju? One, I really call South Korea not just ROK but the Republic of Samsung since this chaebol (conglomerate) generates 23% of its $1.9 trillion GDP. Eat your heart out Mukesh bhai since even a colossus like Reliance is 8-10% of the Indian GDP, the reason the Bharatiya Janata Party has 110 million members, making it bigger than the Chinese Communist Party. Who knows what will happen when Mumbai is renamed Jio de Janeiro LOL?

Samsung Electronics and Hynix Semiconductor are 38% of the South Korean market cap. So the big money was made last year when things went from Godawful to just plain awful after President Yoon imposed martial law and then was arrested in a thankfully peaceful democratic counter-coup. The KOSPI rose from a rock bottom valuation of 5X earnings to 10X earnings due to the AI frenzy that lifted the Mag Two in Seoul. Yet I still think South Korea is cheap relative to Taiwan’s 17X val.

Despite the epic supply glut and surge in non-OPEC production from Texas shale, Canada, offshore Guyana, offshore Brazil and Argentina, Brent has finally risen from 59-64 as the Iran protests have escalated and Trump has publicly vowed to respond with military intervention. The safe haven bid in gold means Dr. Auric now trades at $4636 and silver is at $90.35 an ounce as I write, making the past two months one of the best money making opportunities in my lifetime for silver and copper bulls.

FCX, which I flagged as a must own to my friends in November under my nom de guerre Abu Nuhas closed last night at 59.34 even as Dr. Copper trades at all time highs above $13,000 a metric ton on the LME.

Trump’s threat to impose a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran is a double whammy for the Middle Kingdom, which buys 90% of its sanctioned exports at cut rate prices for its teapot refineries in Shandong Province.

Brent crude was a perma-short for me in 2025 as it fell 21% from $75 to $59 but the mass protests in Iran have forced me to flip to an energy bull – for now. Brent has risen almost 5% in the first two weeks of 2026 as events in Tehran have made history go forward in the oil market, exactly as it did in 1979, when the Shah lost his Peacock Throne. Iran never produced more than 4% of global oil supplies but the 1979 revolution caused a 150% rise in oil prices in the Panic of 79. I do not see how Brent forecasts of 90 or $100 are justified even if Israeli and US forces intervene militarily in Iran and bomb tanker loading terminals in Kharg island, China can just replace 1-MBD of Iranian crude with Saudi, Iraqi or UAE oil with two caveats. One, nothing must happen to close the Straits of Hormuz to tanker traffic. Two, China will have to pay full price for alternatives to the cut rate Iranian crude import windfalls it enjoys now. The Persian people now know that the Dragon Empire is no friend of theirs as once the flag of Iran changes to the lion and the sun.

China is the world’s top crude importer in 2026 and any punitive tariffs mean the trade war with the US restarts. Since Trump has not followed his Truth Social threat with a White House Executive Order on the 25% tariff, the stock market has not priced-in this as a credible scenario. 2025 was my year to buy gold and 2026 is my year to buy black gold!

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