UAE sugar prices drop 20% due to global oversupply, reveals top CEO

Sugar prices in the UAE have dropped 20 per cent despite an increase in demand due to the growing population, a senior industry executive said.

“The white sugar prices have come down by 20 per cent compared to a year ago because of oversupply globally from the big players such as Brazil and India. When they have a surplus, that is reflected in the market. In the UAE, the population grew by five per cent, and demand also increased at the same rate. The drop in global prices was reflected here also because the UAE is an open market,” said Jamal Al Ghurair, managing director and principal shareholder of Al Khaleej Sugar, the UAE-based world’s largest standalone sugar refinery.

The UAE's population has been growing at an exceptionally fast pace, increasing from 11 million in 2024 to 11.54 million in February 2026, attracted by the country’s strong GDP growth, expansion of non-oil sectors and job opportunities, according to worldmeters.info data.

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In addition to oversupply, sugar consumption is declining in major global economies, including the US and Europe, pushing some refiners to shut operations.

Sugar market conditions remain highly sensitive to developments in key producing and exporting countries. The expected surplus for the sugar year (October-September) 2025-26 has the distinct possibility of being significantly trimmed in 2026-27, as weak prices discourage production and stocks adjust in response to how consumption is faring, he added.

“Place this in the backdrop of a volatile macroeconomic environment, geopolitical tensions, currencies in a state of flux and climatic considerations, and it all makes for volatility,” he added.

Furthermore, he pointed out that climate volatility, shifting trade policies, geopolitical uncertainty, sustainability imperatives, and rapid advances in data, digitalisation, and artificial intelligence are collectively reshaping how the sugar market functions.

India will be seeing a recovery to a large crop in 2025-26 of around 31 million tonnes of sugar, with the government allowing the export of 1.5 million tonnes. The increase reflects favourable growing conditions and an improved monsoon, leading to expectations of a comfortable supply position.

Speaking on the sidelines of the Dubai Sugar Conference, Al Ghurair said Al Khaleej Sugar — which exports around 70 to 80 per cent of its capacity — is operating at 70 per cent capacity utilisation.