Tenants who left Dubai for lower rents may return in 2026, experts predict
Some tenants who moved to other emirates are likely to return to Dubai as new residential property supply will bring down rents amidst growing traffic challenges for commuters, say real estate industry executives.Property Monitor data revealed that a total of 648 projects were launched during the year, collectively bringing over 167,000 units to the market in 2025. It is estimated that the emirate will see a sustained increase in supply over the coming few years on the back of projects launched in the last few years and new projects that will hit the market in the coming years.Stay up to date with the latest news. Follow KT on WhatsApp Channels.“The wave of new supply expected from 2026 onwards will give tenants something they’ve lacked for a while: choice. As handovers increase in popular communities such as JVC and Dubai Hills Estate, tenants will benefit from more options and gain bargaining power. In some cases, this could lead to more competitive pricing, with landlords needing to focus more on quality, condition, and realistic rents rather than relying on scarcity,” said Harrison Rackham-Beadle, sales director of haus & haus. Harrison Rackham-BeadleWho will relocate?He said tenants who moved from Dubai to other emirates during the past few years due to higher rentals are likely to return to some extent as rent increases slow down and rents drop in some communities.“Many tenants possibly relocated for affordability rather than preference, and as rent increases in Dubai potentially slow or soften in certain areas, some may reconsider the trade-off of long commutes. If rents become more attractive, the value of being closer to work, amenities, and lifestyle in Dubai becomes more compelling,” added Rackham-Beadle.Affordable unit supplyBhaskara Santosh Punuru, partner and development manager at Arthouse Hills Arjan, suggested that if developers are able to provide value to property buyers in the range of Dh1 million to Dh2 million, people from Ajman and Sharjah would want to return to Dubai.Bhaskara Santosh “They want to move back and stay here… Once this supply enters the market, in terms of studios and one- and two-bedroom units, many people will be motivated to return to Dubai. If rentals are good, in two to three years, with increased supply, there will be enough options for people to move back,” he said during an interview with Khaleej Times.Rohit BachaniRohit Bachani, co-founder of Merlin Real Estate, said it is not a classic oversupply situation, as there is a shortage of quality, end-user housing, particularly in the mid-market apartment and townhouse segment.“While headline figures point to significant new supply from 2026 onwards, much of this stock is either luxury-focused, investor-held, or not designed around how families and long-term tenants typically live. Developments that offer practical layouts, good community planning, schools nearby, adequate parking, and everyday amenities continue to maintain high occupancy even during heavy handover cycles,” he said. Affordable rentals surge past 20% as Dubai property market looks to sustain healthier pace in 2026Dubai rents set to rise by up to 6% in 2026 amid growing population
Some tenants who moved to other emirates are likely to return to Dubai as new residential property supply will bring down rents amidst growing traffic challenges for commuters, say real estate industry executives.
Property Monitor data revealed that a total of 648 projects were launched during the year, collectively bringing over 167,000 units to the market in 2025.
It is estimated that the emirate will see a sustained increase in supply over the coming few years on the back of projects launched in the last few years and new projects that will hit the market in the coming years.
Stay up to date with the latest news. Follow KT on WhatsApp Channels.
“The wave of new supply expected from 2026 onwards will give tenants something they’ve lacked for a while: choice. As handovers increase in popular communities such as JVC and Dubai Hills Estate, tenants will benefit from more options and gain bargaining power. In some cases, this could lead to more competitive pricing, with landlords needing to focus more on quality, condition, and realistic rents rather than relying on scarcity,” said Harrison Rackham-Beadle, sales director of haus & haus. Harrison Rackham-Beadle
Who will relocate?
He said tenants who moved from Dubai to other emirates during the past few years due to higher rentals are likely to return to some extent as rent increases slow down and rents drop in some communities.
“Many tenants possibly relocated for affordability rather than preference, and as rent increases in Dubai potentially slow or soften in certain areas, some may reconsider the trade-off of long commutes. If rents become more attractive, the value of being closer to work, amenities, and lifestyle in Dubai becomes more compelling,” added Rackham-Beadle.
Affordable unit supply
Bhaskara Santosh Punuru, partner and development manager at Arthouse Hills Arjan, suggested that if developers are able to provide value to property buyers in the range of Dh1 million to Dh2 million, people from Ajman and Sharjah would want to return to Dubai. Bhaskara Santosh
“They want to move back and stay here… Once this supply enters the market, in terms of studios and one- and two-bedroom units, many people will be motivated to return to Dubai. If rentals are good, in two to three years, with increased supply, there will be enough options for people to move back,” he said during an interview with Khaleej Times. Rohit Bachani
Rohit Bachani, co-founder of Merlin Real Estate, said it is not a classic oversupply situation, as there is a shortage of quality, end-user housing, particularly in the mid-market apartment and townhouse segment.
“While headline figures point to significant new supply from 2026 onwards, much of this stock is either luxury-focused, investor-held, or not designed around how families and long-term tenants typically live. Developments that offer practical layouts, good community planning, schools nearby, adequate parking, and everyday amenities continue to maintain high occupancy even during heavy handover cycles,” he said.
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